MH370 Cause of Crash / Incident Speculation

[+Erik 1,768]

With so much media coverage of the ill fated Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 you can't help but speculate what the cause may have been. I've tried watching some of the CNN coverage and while I applaud their attempt at trying to recreate the cockpit environment it's the furthest distraction from the truth I can imagine. I know some of our pilots here have some thoughts and I'd like to hear them. As for me I'll be happy to share mine.

 

Some unknowns that I feel need answers but we haven't heard about.

 

1. The lithium ion batteries. Which container, which hold, and quantity. How and where was it loaded they must know for weights and measures.

2. The track of the flight. Radar signatures are not singular they must know or someone knows.

3. The altitude of the flight at any point after loss of communication.

4. The fuel load. How many pounds of fuel were requested and how many loaded and where.

 

9M-MRO Boeing 777-2H6ER (MSN 28420/404) of Malaysia Airlines, at Perth Airport – 1 October 2006.
Landing on runway 21 as flight MH125 from Kuala Lumpur. This aircraft was declared missing on 8 March 2014, whilst operating flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 people aboard (227 passengers and 12 crew).
Photo © Keith Anderson

 

Here's the flight plan that was filed: Route DCT PIBOS R208 IKUKO M076F290 R208 IGARI M765 BITOD N0480F330 L637 TSN N0490F350 W1 BMT W12 PCA G221 BUNTA N0480F350 A1 IKELA N0480F350 P901 IDOSI N0480F390 DCT CH DCT BEKOL K0890S1160 A461 YIN K0890S1190 A461

 

The part of the flight we know about was up and to the hand off and transfer to Ho Chi Minh City FIR at the IGARI waypoint. It's here the track of this aircraft suddenly becomes unknown. I personally don't believe this for a minute, but I digress. I've seen reports of this flight turning left at IGARI but this is where it gets vague at best. How does this flight skirt the sovereign territories and radars from that point on and what happened?

 

I would speculate that flight MH370 suffered from the batteries igniting and being loaded in the forward cargo hold just aft of the Electronic and Aviation Bay. The batteries may have had a failure, ignited in a runaway reaction, or vented caustic gasses into the cargo hold. If this was a fire could it have burned through any important wire harnesses affecting the radio, transponder, and other gear in the E&A bay? I think this is highly possible though I admit I don't know the physical construction of the aircraft.

 

Here's where things get really fuzzy but lets assume a fire. The pilot then turns left to land at the nearest ILS runway in Penang and descends to 12,000 ft to vent the cabin air which is ironically just above the transition altitude into Penang. Assuming again he set up for an approach transitioning through LUNTU like the ISMAS 1A Arrival which has an outbound departure of 207 degrees to TAMIT which would account for the lateral navigation and heading of it's final presumed flight path. So he descends to altitude and presses altitude hold but he leaves the original flight level of 29,000 and climb rate programmed into the auto pilot. He then reaches to the FMC and programs a new route to Penang with the arrival he wanted. This would account for lateral navigation. The questions I have at this point would be lets say the FMC flew the new route to Penang, at what point would it have a disconnect and stop routing? I'm asking this because I believe the FMC will disconnect when there is a discrepancy (altitude) and then does it hand it back to the auto pilot which has their original altitude, climb, and now a new heading of 207 degrees magnetic from LUNTU? This is the only way I can support the ghost aircraft theory where the crew and passengers were disabled at some point just after the left turn and after the pilot could make some plans for landing.

 

Some things I can't reconcile are:

 

1. The distance it traveled. If the flight didn't return to the original cruise altitude how did it make it down to the 40th parallel southwest of Australia.

2. How there is no radar reports of this flight. If it flew outbound LUNTU how did it not cross over Singapore airspace.

3. If this flight flew around Singapore to avoid detection how did it make it so far south.

4. If this or other explanations can't be found that don't assume a hijacking or pilot suicide what's left.

5. How does a fire, explosion, or decompression disable radio communications, ACARS reporting, transponder malfunction, crew incapacitation AND at last resort descending to a point they could use other communication devices like cell phones.

 

I pray for the families affected by this and I wish them the strength to heal and recover from their loss. 

[Stick 773]

The cargo manifest is yet to be disclosed, if I have been following this correctly.

 

In the meanwhile,sharks have begun to circle;

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/us-law-firm-launches/1049186.html