Japanese F-15Js versus the entire Red Army in Kurils 1985. (AAR)

[clim995]

Okay, so I'm not exactly sure where to post this AAR (This is my first), but I guess I'll just leave this here.

Mods used:
Kuril terrain by Gepard
JASDF F-15CJ_Kai by ace888

 

 

Kuril F-15 Shootdown Incident 1985.

(Please bear in mind, this is a totally ahistorical what-if scenario for fun. absolutely nothing was paid attention to the accuracy of paint jobs, markings, and units operating in the area.)

 

Background:

The Soviet Union has occupied the Kurils since August 1945, a major,
lasting irritant to its proud island neighbor, Japan.

In the 1970s, with Japan's ascension into the world stage as a major
Global economic power, nationalistic sentiments grew. The Status of the
The Kuril Islands is once more brought into question.

In response, the Soviet Union denounced Japan as a "superstitious feudal
puppet", closed its Embassy and fortified the island with surface to air
Missiles and a Naval infantry brigade. 

To add insult to the injury, they re-named the Kurils "Ponomarev Islands"
in 1982 after the Soviet naval commander that oversaw the Kuril invasion
operation who died in the same year.

Japan's military build-up has commenced in the 1970s with the
modernization of its Air Forces. The high mark came in 1981 with the
acquisition of the unmatched F-15C Air Superiority Fighters. 

There were also talks of acquiring F-16 Fighter-Bombers, an act that would
ultimately imperil Soviet control of the Area in case of an open
conflict.

This so-deeply disturbed the Soviet Politburo, especially the new General
Secretary Yuri Andropov (still recovering from his kidney transplant
surgery) that they rushed the development and production of the first
Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker squadrons to December 1984. 

Then they were immediately rushed to the Far East Military District in
April 1985, along with the new Buk Surface-to-Air Missiles, ignoring the
loud protest of Soviet commanders in East Germany.

(due to the extreme remoteness of the Kurils and the severe logistics
problems, by the time the shootdown happened in May 1985 however, most of
the Flankers were still in crates, waiting to be assembled.)

 

 

Pilots:

Pilots 2nd Lieutenant Nishikawa, Yuuji. A native of Saga prefecture.
Graduate of National Defence Academy class of 1981. Flew F-4Js, training for the F-15J with the 16th in 1985.

2nd Lieutenant Kana, Haru (wingman), Kanagawa prefecture, a graduate of the
National Defence Academy class of 1983. Training for the F-15J with the 16th in 1985.

Unit, 16th Flight Training Squadron (with the color and markings of the 23rd Hikotai). Nakashibetsu Airport. Suspected of conducting low-level reconnaissance and intel gathering flights over Kurils since 1982.

 

The Shootdown:

(based on incomplete fragments recovered by the Soviet Union, as the official data has allegedly been "lost" by the Japan Air Self Defence Forces headquarters.)

 

On May 11, 1985, at approximately 10:30 am when two F-15Js, Piloted by 2nd Lt. Nishikawa and his wingman, 2nd Lt.Kana took off from Nakashibetsu Airport on a routine familiarization flight.

 

 

 

Upon takeoff, they were immediately tracked by Soviet radars. For some reason, the two pilots continued on their path.

A single missile was fired when they entered the Soviet Airspace, the two F-15s dipped down below radar.

 

 

 

2nd Lieutenant Nishikawa, pulled up to avoid a mountain. the radar was back on tracking him but the RWR beeped another missile fired. 2nd Lt. Nishikawa attempted to evade once more but the missile was clearly not a Sa-2 like it was before. (Soviets would later reveal that it was their new Buk Missile System that shot him down.) 

 

11:05:39, 2nd Lt. Nishikawa was hit by an unknown Surface to Air missiles on his right-wing, the shrapnel peppered the jet canopy, instantly killing him. He crashed near the Mendeleyevo Air Defence Base No. 1.

 

 

 

With the lead pilot dead, the inexperienced 2nd Lt. Kana immediately panicked and slammed forward the throttle, (unwittingly flying further north, deeper into Soviet territory.)

 

 

At 11:07:59, Anti-Air artillery open fires on 2nd Lt. Kana, putting the inexperienced pilot in a hard position: rise and get shot down by SAM or get shot down by AAAs. The panicked pilot then regained his senses and decides his only chance at survival is to veer east, exiting through the Pacific Ocean while dropping chaffs to avoid SAMs.

 

The Soviets scrambled several dozen MiG-23 interceptors just as 2nd Lt. Kana exited the Pacific Ocean.

 

 

 he found himself swarmed by MiGs. An ensuing air battle erupted and 2nd Lt. Kana fought bitterly to the end, managing to shoot down 2 MiG-23s, one with a head-on AIM-7 sparrow kill and another with AIM-9 Sidewinder.  (3 claimed by a U.S E-2 Hawkeye, observing the battle.)

 

 

2nd Lt. Kana was overwhelmed by a salvo of R-60M Aphid Infrared missiles and he was hit in the engine on 11:19:50.

 

 

His F-15J burned and finally broke apart and crashed in the Pacific on 11:20:22 off Iturup Island. Soviet pilots claimed they saw 2nd Lt. Kana eject and a chute but his body was never found. 

 

(Damn! it seems that I've reached the 1.9MB limit so I had to cut this short, unfortunately.)

 

 

Aftermath:

Mid-1985.

The Soviets were put on the highest alert and the Politburo recommended a massive retaliatory strike on Hokkaido, but General Secretary Andropov dismissed the idea. The shootdown of two F-15J, by their Buk surface to air missiles and MiG-23 interceptors still proved that the Soviet Air Forces, with its aging but vast air inventory could still overwhelm Modern but thinly stretched western air forces in an open battle. The Soviets basked in the political victory and the technical knowledge gained from salvaging the F-15Js. By April 1985, Su-27 Flankers have begun to patrol the Kuril Islands and further Japanese Air Self-Defence Forces incursions were discouraged. Secretary-General Andropov died in 1996 and Soviet-Japan relations were not restored until 2000.

 

Late-1985, Early-1986.

Both 2nd Lt. Nishikawa and Kana were awarded the wound medal posthumously.

 

 

The shootdown was a massive scandal in Japan. Japanese leftist opposition politicians accused the Prime Minister of violating Japan's pacifist constitution. The nationalist Japanese cabinet collapsed with the Prime Minister's resignation.

The planned acquisition of the Japanese F-16 was suspended indefinitely, until the introduction of the Mitsubishi F-2A (Japan's homegrown tactical fighter based on the F-16) in 2001.

The entire JASDF general staff was put on inquiry and forced to early retirement, while the 16th's wing commander attempted seppuku, only to be rescued by enlisted personnel wandering in the woods.

 

 

Edited January 1, 2022 by clim995
addition

[bazillius]

Interesting Backstorie, nice pics. Keep playing :)

[clim995]

32 minutes ago, bazillius said:

Interesting Backstorie, nice pics. Keep playing :)

thanks, I'm glad you liked it. might make more Soviet versus Japan Kuril island playthrough, focusing on the late 1980s and early 1990s with the Soviet Union managing to reform its government and economy and survive, preserving the Warsaw Pact through repression, and Japan's economy not imploding in 1990 and continuing to grow. Some sort of an aerial border conflict between the two powers like in the 1930s Manchuria. I'd make a whole campaign if I could but that's way beyond my power. I could only edit .inis haha, maybe one day when I learn.