Here is an interesting analysis by a member at SimHQ. Which i think he is about 90% spot on.
Here's what will happen, not if, just a matter of when...(all of the below is just my opinion.)
- Israel will launch airstrikes on multiple objectives within Iran. Following attacks on Iranian command and control facilities in advance of the main strike, the IAF will be used to target multiple facilities within Iran.
- Special forces units will be infiltrated to penetrate and destroy/damage underground installations
- Israel will also (either in advance, or subsequently) use a programme of assassinations against targeted Iranian nuclear engineers and scientists
- The UN and USA will immediately condemn the strikes (as they did when Osirak was attacked) but take no punitive action against Israel.
- Iran, Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Syria will respond with missile strikes against Israel. Not coincidentally Israel recently rehearsed its civil response to this scenario, in April 2008.
- Iran's recent wargames (2006/2007) show it may be planning also respond to the strikes by attacking US/Coalition forces in the Gulf, claiming a need to protect its territorial waters. Iran does not fear a ground war with the US, as it sees this as impossible given current resources and political climate in the US. The purpose of these air and naval attacks would be to shut the Gulf to civilian shipping indefinitely. A secondary purpose would be to damage US military prestige by eg damaging or sinking a US carrier.
- The USA may or may not respond with major air and naval bombardment of Iran, depending on the strength of threat to or damage to its military and corporate assets.
- Politically the EU is expected to line up behind Israel, and at least Russia, Venezuela, Cuba and Nth Korea behind Iran. China would remain neutral but could also be expected to condemn Israel. This would effectively cripple the UN Security Council and ensure it can take no effective action against either Israel or Iran.
- Oil supplies through the Gulf region would be dramatically effected. Sympathetic boycotts of USA and Israel by Venezuela would also impact supplies. The US and EU economies would be crippled by lack of supply. Sympathetic OPEC nations would not be able to increase production sufficiently to compensate. $300 a barrel oil is likely.
- The spread of the conflict beyond the region is not likely, though depending on the long term damage to oil infrastructure, may precipitate further tension around access to oil rich territories in the future.