F-22J?

[Falcon161 3]

I agree with Brain32 the Raptor is not an untouchable plane in any means. I also thought that the Japanese were making their own stealth fighter

[column5 63]

a) If you are already buying modern weapons from US that means you are an allied country, so what exactly needs to be countered here?

 

For the Japanese, the needs include maintaining a credible deterrence against Russia, China and North Korea. China being the biggest military threat.

 

b) You can get 3-4 more than capable warplanes for the price of one Raptor, not to mention that those 3-4 will probably have greater mission variety

 

OK, so you can choose between, say, 100 F-22s or 300 of some off-brand aircraft. When figuring the total cost of ownership you have to factor in the need to recruit, train and deploy 3x more pilots. Maintain and provide spares for 3x more aircraft, as well as recruit train and support a larger number of maintenance and logistics personnel. You also have to buy, store and maintain as many as 3x more weapons and stores, including training rounds, etc. You have to purchase and store up to 3x more fuel. You likely need to buy more tankers to support the operations of a larger fleet. You need up to 3x more basing area.

 

So is the value proposition of buying more cheaper aircraft as good as you think it is?

 

c) Quite honestly I don't believe Raptor is as untouchable as the makers claim, the best? Sure! Untouchable? Naaah...

 

So, if you put a squadron of F-22s in combat, fully integrated with their AWACS to leverage the Raptor's unprecedented electronic integration, exactly what do you think has a chance of touching it? Of course no plane is untouchable, but...wait a sec...no F-15s ever lost to enemy aircraft...on second thought maybe untouchability is achievable.

[+Brain32 265]

For the Japanese, the needs include maintaining a credible deterrence against Russia, China and North Korea. China being the biggest military threat.

Well sure F-22 is a great detterence, but being in a close military cooperation with the USA is IMO the best detterence. Also I may be a delusioned Eagle fanboy but I still think F-15 can do the job VERY nicely, especially newer E's with AESA radars and other goodies, not to even mention the SE.

Also I don't see Russia as a threat, I don't think they are much into it anymore, NorthKorea is the only real threat in the area IMO(atleast for now) but they are so weak, I think South Koreans could sweep the floor with them...

 

 

OK, so you can choose between, say, 100 F-22s or 300 of some off-brand aircraft. When figuring the total cost of ownership you have to factor in the need to recruit, train and deploy 3x more pilots. Maintain and provide spares for 3x more aircraft, as well as recruit train and support a larger number of maintenance and logistics personnel. You also have to buy, store and maintain as many as 3x more weapons and stores, including training rounds, etc. You have to purchase and store up to 3x more fuel. You likely need to buy more tankers to support the operations of a larger fleet. You need up to 3x more basing area.

So is the value proposition of buying more cheaper aircraft as good as you think it is?

Yes on the larger scale(talking in hundreds) rentability emerges as an issue, but on a scale of either 40 aircraft or 120, I think it may pay off. Also let's look at it like this: Either 40 F-22's or 120 F-15SE's. F-15 is in production for a long time, the assembly lines are working smooth and resupply is surely cheaper and more time and cost efficient than with the F-22, also I'm pretty sure Raptor spare parts are quite costly.

Furthermore, in cases of Israel and Japan, they already have F-15's and all the logistics behind it, trained pilots, bases, maintnance crews - everything.

 

So, if you put a squadron of F-22s in combat, fully integrated with their AWACS to leverage the Raptor's unprecedented electronic integration, exactly what do you think has a chance of touching it? Of course no plane is untouchable, but...wait a sec...no F-15s ever lost to enemy aircraft...on second thought maybe untouchability is achievable.

Fact is that it's highly unlikely that wars among major powers in which I can see the Raptor not so untouchable should emerge in the future, but also in all other types of wars as you yourself noted, not even an F-15 was lost to enemy aircraft.

Overall, defensively I think Raptor most probably is untouchable, but offensively against a major power I don't think anythink man-made can be cocky enough to claim untouchability ;)

[eraser_tr 29]

While it may be highly unlikely, you can't just discount there ever being a war between major powers. Just look at Georgia last year, imagine now if it or any of the other ex soviet states like Ukraine became NATO members how Russia might react. Or the geopolitical chess over oil pipelines what might erupt. Or people that are just plain crazy.

 

And then there's what happens if robot aliens that can turn into cars and planes show up

[+warthog64 93]

Wow I haven't heard this yet. Isn't the Japanese military purely defensive? What use would they have for a stealth fighter? I guess they do need an aircraft though to replace their aging fleet of F-15's, F-4's etc. But I didn't think the F-22 was available for export.

[macelena 1,070]

Wow I haven't heard this yet. Isn't the Japanese military purely defensive? What use would they have for a stealth fighter? I guess they do need an aircraft though to replace their aging fleet of F-15's, F-4's etc. But I didn't think the F-22 was available for export.

 

 

In fact, i think that the EF2000 might do, but defense against someone able to make nuke rain upon you will take

some "offensive" capabilities. Anyway, the stealth of F-22 would ensure their home air superiority if the enemy takes

AWACS aircraft with them.

[+warthog64 93]

In fact, i think that the EF2000 might do, but defense against someone able to make nuke rain upon you will take

some "offensive" capabilities. Anyway, the stealth of F-22 would ensure their home air superiority if the enemy takes

AWACS aircraft with them.

 

Yeah didn't think about that. Good Point!

[serverandenforcer 33]

Hey Brain32, another good reason to export the F-22 is that it keeps the production facilities operating. If those are kept in business, we, the USA, will be able to order up more F-22 in the event we should ever need more in the future. If we don't export, and close down production now, it will be very difficult to restart production again because jobs will be lost, the employment at being such a facility will appear to be unreliable, and which will not be very encouraging to anybody wanting to seek work there. Plus, keep those facilities operating for export marketing allows more research and developments to be made for future upgrades to our Raptors. Look at how the F-16s and the F-15s evolved due to keeping the production lines operating due to exports. If we hadn't exported those aircrafts, I doubt we would have the F-16s and F-15s that we have today.

[macelena 1,070]

Hey Brain32, another good reason to export the F-22 is that it keeps the production facilities operating. If those are kept in business, we, the USA, will be able to order up more F-22 in the event we should ever need more in the future. If we don't export, and close down production now, it will be very difficult to restart production again because jobs will be lost, the employment at being such a facility will appear to be unreliable, and which will not be very encouraging to anybody wanting to seek work there. Plus, keep those facilities operating for export marketing allows more research and developments to be made for future upgrades to our Raptors. Look at how the F-16s and the F-15s evolved due to keeping the production lines operating due to exports. If we hadn't exported those aircrafts, I doubt we would have the F-16s and F-15s that we have today.

 

 

Let alone diminishing the cost per unit due to a research wich will be paid among more than 183 planes, and the availability of spares

[JediMaster 451]

Hey Brain32, another good reason to export the F-22 is that it keeps the production facilities operating. If those are kept in business, we, the USA, will be able to order up more F-22 in the event we should ever need more in the future. If we don't export, and close down production now, it will be very difficult to restart production again because jobs will be lost, the employment at being such a facility will appear to be unreliable, and which will not be very encouraging to anybody wanting to seek work there. Plus, keep those facilities operating for export marketing allows more research and developments to be made for future upgrades to our Raptors. Look at how the F-16s and the F-15s evolved due to keeping the production lines operating due to exports. If we hadn't exported those aircrafts, I doubt we would have the F-16s and F-15s that we have today.

 

 

Actually, you should say "other people" because AFAIK the most advanced F-15s and F-16s were NOT built for the US. We've had older ones upgraded with AESA and things, but no new-builds.

[Giorgio262 1]

Clearly this whole situation is a consequence of the new scenario resulting from the end of the cold war and the emerging of more elusive enemies like terrorists. Like you can get very powerful cannons to scare elephants, but it won't do much to bugs who would just flip some finger and keep on flying around. I think the operations in Iraq and Afghanistan are desperate tentatives to deal with new enemies in an older fashion, one which, incidentaly, is pretty remunerative for the defense industry.

I think it also made clear that there are huge economical powers and interests at work behind conflicts: corporations lobbying around to keep their business going, eager to prove how necessary it is to have lots of weapons and to be ready to fight. There's not so much interest in peace ...like you can't make much money by printing rainbow flags. There's just not enough room for R&D there, I suppose.

War keeps the economy going, apparently. So when there are no enemies in sight, somebody has to make them. Much like software houses developing anti-malware software: they need a steady flow of new viruses and stuff to keep their business going, so one might even think they could acutally spend on R&D there as well.

As for North Korea, just like Iran, I think all their "showing muscles policy", meaning the nukes and missile tests is partly meant to send a message to the international community, to be taken in consideration, and, possibly, in an even larger part for the benefit of their internal politics. These kind of dicatatorships and similar regimes, need a strong cause to keep their people united, to justify the oppressive rules and laws. Political regimes that survive by creating a constant state of pre-war.

And for some governments to be granted the possibility to purchase some F-22s could actually be more a matter of international prestige rather than the most effective response to a real operational need.

 

Anyway AFAIK the US have signed some agreement (at Dayton or something?) that states that what military equipment they sell to Israel they have to offer it to Egypt and other surrounding arab countries as well. So I suppose they may not want to sell the F-22 to anybody in the middle east.

As for everything else, please, correct me me if I'm wrong.

[+Brain32 265]

Hey Brain32, another good reason to export the F-22 is that it keeps the production facilities operating. If those are kept in business, we, the USA, will be able to order up more F-22 in the event we should ever need more in the future. If we don't export, and close down production now, it will be very difficult to restart production again because jobs will be lost, the employment at being such a facility will appear to be unreliable, and which will not be very encouraging to anybody wanting to seek work there. Plus, keep those facilities operating for export marketing allows more research and developments to be made for future upgrades to our Raptors. Look at how the F-16s and the F-15s evolved due to keeping the production lines operating due to exports. If we hadn't exported those aircrafts, I doubt we would have the F-16s and F-15s that we have today.

I understand why is it good for it to be exported, my point is on the buyers POV. It's just too damn expensive, and this has always been a huge problem with such equipment.

I mean look at F-117 or B-2, if we put aside the huge fact that nobody normal would sell stuff like strategic, nuclear capable stealth bomber lol, who would buy the B-2 anyway??? Mid 1990's cost per unit production, not end cost but pure production was about 800 milion dollars!!!

 

It's pretty much a similar issue for F-22, unit cost is 290 milion dollars? And even then it probably wouldn't be a "full high - breed" Raptor. There's no way in the world you guys will sell that to anybody sane. A maximum I think that can pass on the market is somewhere between 100 and 150 milion $ and even then you better have a very, VERY good stuff to sell.

Keep in mind that fly away cost of Dassault Raphale C is 82 milion bucks and nobody want's it, even Gripen is not getting mad sales although it's export price is about 70 milion $

In short, there are two possibilities, either they find a way to drastically reduce(half) the production price of F-22 or the company producing it get's it's income from another project that would sell really, really good...

Edited July 7, 2009 by Brain32

[JediMaster 451]

FYI the B-2's "flyaway" price was $500m at the end of its production run, and the F-22 is now quoted just under $150m. That's one of the reasons continued production of the F-22 was argued for as the early F-35s will cost over $150m each in the early years until production gets going.