Currency Watchers: Euro

[+Major Lee 18]

Anyone have an educated guess as to the value of the Euro and where it is heading in the next quarter? May need to get some soon for travel... I've been watching it on WSJ.com

Edited November 9, 2011 by Major Lee

[+JonathanRL 973]

After serious consideration, heavy mathematics and alot other calculations, I have but one answer!

 

 

In short: The Euro will be getting cheaper.

Edited November 9, 2011 by JonathanRL

[+Major Lee 18]

I wonder when... Probably in "two weeks"....

[Slartibartfast 153]

Always 2 weeks...

[+daddyairplanes 9,694]

ya know i was stationed in germany when they switched fron the mark to the Euro.i will give the eurozonbe credit, i thought it would tank and everyone would go back to the old currencies within 5 years when it changed. still, i miss the old mark exchange rate(averaged 2 marks to the USD while i was there)

[+Major Lee 18]

The Mark was nearly 4 to 1 when I was there, so many years ago... I hope to get back someday soon...

[+Gepard 10,891]

The Euro will survive. No one in Euro zone has a real interesst to let it crash. Maybe some old Mark fans would like to get the old currency back, but to be honest without the Euro we would have had a much worser way through the crisis which came from the US market.

It is very interessting, that the hedge fonds (mostly american and british)are attacking only the Euro zone. Other contries have much higher depts or dept ratios (UK, or USA) and nobody is attacking them. The question is why?

 

My guess for the € : $ ratio in the next two month is a range between 1.00 : 1.25 and 1.00 : 1.40.

[+Major Lee 18]

Thanks Gepard. I do not wish to see a crash or revert to old currencies. Just wondering about value range... I see historical support at 1.30 or so...

 

thanks!

 

ML.

[+Typhoid 231]

I'll disagree, Gepard, I don't think the Euro will survive for the long term.

 

Not that I have any wish to see it crash nor will I make any short or mid-term prediction (sorry Major Lee).

 

The problem with the Eurozone is that it is still made up of a lot of very different economies and governments. Trying to mash those together into a common currency and economy, with an unelected Euro Parliment, was, in my humble opinion, pushing things too far too fast. Those economies are still very much different and with very different government policies there is not much to hold a common currency together.

 

The old European Common Market with a common trade zone was great and was about as far integration should have gone. The idea of pushing a common currency before a true common economy evolved was a case of, as we put it, putting the cart before the horse.

 

What is unfolding now is the situation where some countries are being supported by others, which will only go on so long. (why should Germans work until they are 70+ so that Greeks can retire at 50?)

 

I don't see this working out well in the long term for the Euro. Greece is on the verge of bankruptcy. Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland are close behind. The Euro won't last. But I will not put a time prediction on it. I think it will be in the "two week" range for a long time yet.

 

Just my (borrowed) two cents......

 

Incidently - much the same happening here between the states. California is financially terminal and will default on its bonds within a year or two. California is already printing state script. Essentially, California is "Enron by the Sea" or "Greece on the Pacific".

[+daddyairplanes 9,694]

same opinion as Major Lee, Gepard. no one wants to see a major economy or currency fail. at the time i just did not think the nations of Europe had come together enough at that point for it to work. the way that europe has interlocked its economies and defense is a big step to a quote united states of europe. however national identities are still very strong within each soveriegn nation and may lead to big changes down the road. as always, politics play a part in economics and vice versa. not to mention as always, all politics is local. maybe not the end of the euro zone itself, maybe a changeup in the currency to adjust for the current problems.

[Lexx_Luthor 57]

daddy::

maybe not the end of the euro zone itself, maybe a changeup in the currency to adjust for the current problems.

 

Something like that (maybe). It won't fail, but won't survive as-is either. Something will change.

 

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daddy::

No one wants to see a major economy or currency fail.

 

There's a problem -- currency working against economy. Bank controlled debt based currencies are destroying the economy, at least here in USA (not sure about Euro). Think of bank owned currencies as stock fraud like the (USA) internet tech bubble or the mortgage fraud + housing bubble on a much larger scale. If you don't believe me, believe Nightwatch on Europe...

 

3 Nov 2011::

:

:

Thus, more debt will be used to pay for debt, nothing has changed, and civil disorder is unavoidable. The bankers are acting to protect the European banking system, not to stabilize European economies. The threat of financial system collapse has not diminished, just pushed down the road....

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:

~ http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_11000222.aspx

 

...add that to 8 Nov. 2011::

:

:

Greece: Comment.

:

:

The EU bankers are exercising power over Greece that the US Federal government could not use against US states, except the EU bankers rule money not a country.

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:

~ http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_11000226.aspx

 

I will add that if you rule the money, you control the country. Same goes for USA as our weak government allows the currency to be ruled by banks. Banking fraud -- and fraudulent bank notes -- always fail in the end although most likely too late before the victims wake up stripped of wealth, businesses, jobs, homes, land, ecomomy, retirement promises, infrastructure maintenence, etc... they and their nations still in debt to the banks.

[+hgbn 91]

I'll disagree, Gepard, I don't think the Euro will survive for the long term.

 

Not that I have any wish to see it crash nor will I make any short or mid-term prediction (sorry Major Lee).

 

The problem with the Eurozone is that it is still made up of a lot of very different economies and governments. Trying to mash those together into a common currency and economy, with an unelected Euro Parliment, was, in my humble opinion, pushing things too far too fast. Those economies are still very much different and with very different government policies there is not much to hold a common currency together.

 

The old European Common Market with a common trade zone was great and was about as far integration should have gone. The idea of pushing a common currency before a true common economy evolved was a case of, as we put it, putting the cart before the horse.

 

What is unfolding now is the situation where some countries are being supported by others, which will only go on so long. (why should Germans work until they are 70+ so that Greeks can retire at 50?)

 

I don't see this working out well in the long term for the Euro. Greece is on the verge of bankruptcy. Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland are close behind. The Euro won't last. But I will not put a time prediction on it. I think it will be in the "two week" range for a long time yet.

 

Just my (borrowed) two cents......

 

Incidently - much the same happening here between the states. California is financially terminal and will default on its bonds within a year or two. California is already printing state script. Essentially, California is "Enron by the Sea" or "Greece on the Pacific".

 

I totally agrees. I'm just glad we never jumped on that wagon here in Denmark. In my book the European Union is a dead borne. To many different views on how stuff needs to work. And democracy is out the window. I remember when we had to vote on a common currency. It should be an anomalously accepted in all of the members in the common market to get trough. Well we voted no and the French chairman in the EC was outraged. It couldn't be true that 50.000 Danes should decide the future of the EU... Well in my book that's called democracy. It just shows how the big countries like France and Germany wants to rule the smaller countries.

[Nixou 25]

 

There's a problem -- currency working against economy. Bank controlled debt based currencies are destroying the economy, at least here in USA (not sure about Euro). Think of bank owned currencies as stock fraud like the (USA) internet tech bubble or the mortgage fraud + housing bubble on a much larger scale. If you don't believe me, believe Nightwatch on Europe...

 

 

 

Yes, euro too. The people who created it are responsible for its downfall, looks like 1929 crisis didn't teach any lesson. From what i see its not any better in the USA, many financial lobbyists and scholars advocating financial deregulation, and many bankers responsible for the shutdown of Lehman brother & co (which damage ends up being paid by federal bank = THE PEOPLE) are now in Obama administration, and more rich than ever. Go figure...

 

 

People in greece are pushed to their extreme limits but Sarkosy project of taxing financial products was strongly refused by Obama and Merkel. Not sure Sarkosy was sincere about it anyways, maybe just a manoeuver for elections...

 

Not sure what we can do about it? Revolution?

 

When did our countries become the prostitutes of the banks?Tripple A bulls**te? When did our politics passed from being decided by the people to being decided by the banks?

[+hgbn 91]

I think all banks have forgotten the golden rule of any investment.. DON'T INVEST MORE THAN YOU AFFORD TO LOSE.. They shouldn't be any different than any other company.. If you can't run your business properly it has to close.... Sorry can't help you should be the response from the government.

[Lexx_Luthor 57]

Major Lee...forgot this is your thread. Predicting floating currencies is the domain of currency traders, because it involves good timing as well. Just go when you can go.

 

There is one rather soft rule to follow: contrarianism, but its a frightening experience to develop in one's soul. If majority sentiment or "everybody knows" favours one currency over another, then you favour the opposite. Its not always a perfect rule because of timing. Sometimes one stock or currency can go far higher or lower and for far longer (or much shorter) than seems sensible. Bad timing has ruined many otherwise "correct" predicting traders. Don't try to time it. If going is important enough, just get up and go when you can spare the dime.

 

One good contrarian timer blog on currencies and other stuff is Mike Shedlock at ~> http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

 

I don't trade, but its one small source among many of non~mainstream info on what's going down.

 

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hgbn::

Well we [...Denmark?...] voted no and the French chairman in the EC was outraged.

Don't you love it how the souls can vote, and if the politicians don't like the vote, force another vote, again and again until they get what they want? They tried that trick in UK I think about a euro vote, or somewhere. Iceland too they tried that concerning bailing out the failed Ice banks.

 

I love the concept of some kind of European association (Typhoid's common market perhaps).

 

At one time Europe had a common currency, shucks the whole world shared a common currency for international trade, and in late 19th century they did quite well, perhaps the greatest economy ever seen in the world. I've read that it took the world until the1980s or maybe even the early 2000s (forgot) to regain the economic scale of global trade seen in the late 19thC and pre~WW1.

[+Gepard 10,891]

Do not mix the EU with the Euro. The European Union was and is a great project. Okay it has a lot of problems, but it fullfull its major task: It safes the peace in Europe. It was founded to merge togheter the french and german steel industry, so that no war between this european major powers will happen again. With the inclusion of the BeNeLux contries and Italy it became an economic and political project that became bigger and bigger. In the last time it became to big and to fast. Sorry to say that, but Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Poland etc are not really fit for the EU. Poland, there i may wrong. Its a land on a good way. But the others ...

The Euro was one of the "great ideas" of Chancellor Kohl and President Mitterand. To get the french okay for the Reunification of Germany Kohl gave its okay to sacrifice th DM for the Euro. This is not a bad idea, but like the most things Kohl handled, he handled it in the wrong way. The german Reunification is the perfect example how to do a unification of two different states. (Hope the Koreans have learned from this lesson.)

And with the Euro it was the same, so contries were invited to come into the Euro Zone which were not fit for this zone. Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, the whole club of soft currencies.

It would have been much better to start the Euro with a small number of contries of hard currencies, France, Germany and the Benelux contries as core, Austria, Sweden, Finnland in a first expansion wave and then wait a long time, so that the finance policy of the other EU contries could go into the right way, what means smaller depts

[+hgbn 91]

 

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hgbn::

Don't you love it how the souls can vote, and if the politicians don't like the vote, force another vote, again and again until they get what they want? They tried that trick in UK I think about a euro vote, or somewhere. Iceland too they tried that concerning bailing out the failed Ice banks.

 

I love the concept of some kind of European association (Typhoid's common market perhaps).

 

 

 

They tried the same trick here in Denmark.... They must think people are stupid or something.. A matter of fact, they are still trying to sell us the Euro Why join this failure

[+Major Lee 18]

Wonderful discussion, great comments and diverse points of view. Always interesting to hear people who are directly affected by events, rather than just what we can glean on this side of the pond... Thanks!

 

ML.

[Lexx_Luthor 57]

Interesting ... the new PMs or presidents of Greece AND Italy are bankers. Denninger has a funny short piece on this...

 

 

Are Banksters Trying To Steal GOVERNMENTS?

 

But one does have to wonder about this pattern.... two in a week is not exactly something to ignore. ...

 

Over here across the mid-Atlantic Coffee Tea Boundary, its beyond comedy our US Treasury heads and Federal Reserve boards and economists tend to be previous Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, or Citigroup executives. Herman Cain also worked in the Federal Reserve, so that writes him off for those who know what's going down.

[JediMaster 451]

That's not unusual. Many SecDefs as well as those lower down in the DoD heirarchy worked (or will work) in defense contractors.

 

In fact, it's pretty common for those in an industry and the gov't agency that (directly or indirectly) covers it to see a continuous cross pollination of people. Part of it makes sense, that you want people that know the other side working with you so you don't get surprised, but it's also blatantly incestuous and there are few if any regulations against it. That's saying nothing of course about the whole "gov't jobs as former military wellfare" racket that sees not the best people but merely the best qualified vets getting spots even if the vets are clearly not as experienced or capable. While the idea that some vets may have a hard time getting a civilian job after they get out and need a hand has merit, in practice it means "vet with some vague inkling of what the job needs" gets the spot over "outside expert that could really make things work better."

[Lexx_Luthor 57]

 

JediMaster::

That's not unusual. Many SecDefs as well as those lower down in the DoD heirarchy worked (or will work) in defense contractors.

 

In fact, it's pretty common for those in an industry and the gov't agency that (directly or indirectly) covers it to see a continuous cross pollination of people. Part of it makes sense, that you want people that know the other side working with you so you don't get surprised, but it's also blatantly incestuous and there are few if any regulations against it. That's saying nothing of course about the whole "gov't jobs as former military wellfare" racket that sees not the best people but merely the best qualified vets getting spots even if the vets are clearly not as experienced or capable. While the idea that some vets may have a hard time getting a civilian job after they get out and need a hand has merit, in practice it means "vet with some vague inkling of what the job needs" gets the spot over "outside expert that could really make things work better."

Yea good thinking there.

 

Its worse in the finance world, because when the banks control the governemnt and private purse, they are at the top, even over the "defense" (sic) establishment especially since it is hoplesslly addicted and dependent on ever increasing borrowing and debt.

 

The *real* economists are simply businesses and households and men and women on the street doing their day to day thing -- that is what a (free) economy is after all, or should be. Ever notice that the more official "economist" university degrees given out, the more the private and public debt builds up -- the more official "business" degrees are minted, the more businesses go into debt and fold. Here's today's interesting take from the Nightwatch....

 

For the night of 16 November 2011::

Comment: Monti is an economist. Apparently, the European Union bankers prefer to have technocrats run the governments of its members....

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The key question is whether a cabinet of professionals and academics can do better than the elected representatives of the Italian people in implementing austerity measures demanded by an outside power, the European Union. Berlusconi and his political hacks failed. Now it is the turn of the professionals to try to do better. The problems appear to be structural, which means the professionals will have no greater success than did the politicians in stabilizing the Italian financial sector.

 

End of NightWatch for 16 November.

Nightwatch has previouslly stated that the goal here is not to save the European ecomomies, but to save the banks. Again, the "pro" or "official" ecomomists are frauds. The real ecomomists are every day souls on the street, although we can be, and have been, tempted into self-destruction and delusion by the frauds.