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The Corona Virus Thread

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One of the biggest regrets I have is what nationalism has done in our country. Some people were so busy making America great again that we are in no position to help the rest of the world. We're literally trying to keep ourselves from drowning and everyone else is on their own. We can't be a global economy, a global civilization that travels within hours between continents, but focus only on our selves. We either want to be a global community or we don't. Time to shite or get off the pot.

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5 hours ago, Menrva said:

For once, I am proud to be Italian. Our government took its time, but now is dealing with this very seriously. At the moment, we have more than 300 deaths a day,

I am sorry for all the shit going on, and the size of this thing. But I am not going to just take all the stories on face value, or just from the size of TV exposure.

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.agenzianova.com%2Fa%2F5e6bcf1da7fbe3.23491954%2F2851060%2F2020-03-13%2Fcoronavirus-iss-in-italia-i-decessi-accertati-finora-per-causa-del-covid-19-sono-solo-due
 

Quote

 

Rome, 18 Mar 09:29 - (Agenzia Nova) - Only 12 deaths caused by coronavirus have been ascertained so far. The data, however, emerges from the analysis of just 355 medical records, out of 2,003 received by the Higher Institute of Health (ISS). All the other 343 patients who fell victim to the epidemic, according to the ISS, had other serious diseases, which caused their death. Almost 50 percent of the deceased had 3 previous pathologies, and the average of the 343 deaths from secondary causes is 2.7 pathologies per person. The 12 deceased patients, equal to 3.38 per cent of the sample examined, however, had no previous pathology , which means that their death was caused, precisely, by Covid-19.


 

 

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@gerwin I am not claiming that the virus is deadly all by itself, but it is indeed speeding up the deaths of hundreds of elderly people each day (and by elder people, I mean those who are more than 50 year old). You see, my dad was diagnosed a rare blood disease last November. He's prone to get ill. If he ever gets the virus, I know what will happen to him, but I do not want to even think about it.

Of those 300 that are dying everyday, many could have lived for years to come, even with their own previous diseases and conditions. The virus is not so light as others still make it believe.

Just to provide an example close to me; a municipal employee in my province went to work with fever. He had the virus, and with his recklessness he infected lots of colleagues. A colleague of his infected his own father, and the father died. Last I have heard, the employee who started it all was in resuscitation.

My grandma is 89 years old. Of course she has got some conditions with her age, but she is healthy nonetheless. With the virus, she'd be a goner. I hope that clarifies things. I am not willing to let old people die (and my father is not even that old, he's in his 60s)

Edited by Menrva
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Sorry to hear about the fragile health of some of your family members. Of course it is all understandable from that point of view.

19 minutes ago, Menrva said:

Just to provide an example close to me; a municipal employee in my province went to work with fever. He had the virus, and with his recklessness he infected lots of colleagues. A colleague of his infected his own father, and the father died. Last I have heard, the employee who started it all was in resuscitation.

Did you actually know these people, or did you read about it?

Here is nothing to see. Just fear and lack of things to do. Several relatives having a cold and being fine some days later. Then in some weeks I expect loads of economic damages + bailouts together with more tightened laws...

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Here is spooky map: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Denmark: "the responsible Government Virus Institute cannot recognize the numbers, and they do not know who gives Hopkins the figures [for their map]."

Afrika: Generally the clinics there do not have the means to determine anything like this at all. For example: I have been told personally by a doctor for tropical diseases, in the top hospital of my country, that they do not know a single trustable clinic in Nigeria. Not one. When it gets beyond the obvious they will say it is Malaria to be done with it.

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Here in Israel, the government is taking it very seriously and we're now entered a lock-down situation in a way.. and suggest not to go outside if not necessary..

We were also asked not involve grandparents to babysit our kids while schools & kindergartens are closed (How the HACK am I suppose to work and babysit my little monkey if she's yelling daddy daddy half the day? luckily the wife is also working from home)

Anyway, the number of infected people is on the rise (I expect it to double almost daily when tests will become frequent [we only test several hundreds a day]) and stand at about 500 - luckily no deaths

Shit has hit the fan, hopefully it will go over soon and everybody keeps healthy and safe

Good night :)

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In Michigan we have 110 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and our first death. The USA-Canada border here is closed to nonessential travel.

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Report from Imperial College London

Summary

The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US.

We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission. Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely.

Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option. We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism.

The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

 

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some good news....origin of outbreak...only 1 new case in shanghai....maybe the chinese have a vaccine.....wonder if its germ warfare gone amiss...and they have it under their control?  did it escape is it man made?.....we can only guess.

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This is just rumor but a friend knows a Michigan National Guard member who says the whole National Guard is being called up and the state borders are going to be closed. Also all nonessential businesses are to be closed, possibly all businesses. Again this is just rumor.

Edited by KJakker
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2 hours ago, russouk2004 said:

some good news....origin of outbreak...only 1 new case in shanghai....maybe the chinese have a vaccine.....wonder if its germ warfare gone amiss...and they have it under their control?  did it escape is it man made?.....we can only guess.

It is certainly man caused or can be accused for letting go, it did not magically start on the "market" with a bat or snake as they want people to believe. This virus lives in bats, and naturally would never transfer over to humans,  in the laboratory they studied it and through some "human action" was able to "cross over". Even if they deny it it come from the laboratory, accidental release or intentional, not so sure, and the real "why?" is also to be guessed..   Since it was under study, probably they had a good idea what things can counter it or how it would react to certain environmental or chemical "exposure".

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Hello,

From Bordeaux... :hi:

I’m prepared to work from home through teleworking !

Take care of yourself and others !!! 

P.

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In Michigan Governor Whitmer just had a press conference. 549 confirmed cases in the state and three deaths. She has asked for sufficient Federal funds to fully activate the National Guard for the purposes of distribution of necessities to residents in need. Martial Law rumors are False! Michigan businesses are working to locally produce protective equipment and ventilators.

Edit: I missed a couple of things. The Governor ordered all evictions in the state halted. Also 152 members of the Detroit Police Department are quarantined following 10 members testing positive for COVID-19.

Edited by KJakker
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DPD out for the count, that's gotta hurt. Who's going to fill the role?

The chosen one signed the executive order to activate war time production but has yet actually mandated which companies are to make what and if he has tasked them he's refusing to say so. I'm so sick of our administration being half assed to the point of absurdity. There's no accountability for anything not even firing the NIH task force office in the white house that was responsible for our preparedness in the event of another outbreak. If you're not sick of winning then you've been on another planet.

May we all get out of this alive.

E

 

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51 minutes ago, Erik said:

DPD out for the count, that's gotta hurt. Who's going to fill the role?

DPD has 2,200 officers but if this continues at the rate it is the situation will get overwhelming in short order.

I am also worried about the fire fighters. Some units had stocked up on protective equipment during the Ebola and Swine Flue epidemics but they said in an interview that those supplies would go fast in a full pandemic and that was a couple of weeks ago.

What the federal government should do is what was done during WWII. Give all national industries a list of the things that are needed and let them each decide what they are best set up to produce and let them get to work on production. 

Edited by KJakker

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This is what is happening ~20 km from where I live:
http://www.ansa.it/lombardia/notizie/2020/03/18/coronavirus-colonna-mezzi-militari-a-bergamo-con-feretri_3b4e3a18-8467-4185-ad72-2939cc607f66.html

In that photo (taken 3 days ago), an Italian Army truck convoy is transfering corpses from the cemetery of Bergamo (Lombardy's 4th largest city) to other cities because the local crematory is overwhelmed.
I used to travel on that same road almost every saturday night, as one of our favourite pubs is near that place.

Now my area is the most badly hit. A cluster appeared in a nearby valley almost contemporary to the first clusters in Italy, but unlike the other ones it was decided not to lock down that place to avoid shutting down some important industries. Now the situation is out of control, while the first clusters are more or less contained by now.

Local hospitals are full. Bergamo's airport, the third busiest airport in Italy, is now almost exclusively used by Italian Air Force cargo planes transfering patients to hospitals in other regions in bio-containment capsules.

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@Dysko I live in the Marche region, luckily to the south. We have a number of cases, a couple even in my little town, but it's nothing compared to what you guys are experiencing to the North. The images of the convoy saddened me so much. And there are people in the EU still not realizing this is a serious matter... Well, we have our own problems now, we must resist. Divided we stand, united we will rise again. Andrà tutto bene.

Edited by Menrva
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First time today that I went to the bank with a mask and gloves the security guard let me in and the rest who came up without were refused entry... 😂😂

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If you look like you're robbing the bank you're allowed in, all others are refused service. A lot of banks here no longer have lobby access to live tellers. You may use the ATMs or Mobile Banking for everything you can and need during this time.

 

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