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Gepard

independent Scotland?

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On September 18th the scotsmen will have a referendum for the independence of Scotland.

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What do you think about it? Is this a good development or a bad one?

Will be a independant Scotland member of the NATO and/or the EU?

Will it have the Pound Sterling as currency in future or a scotish Pound or the Euro?

What will bring the future for such a state?

And if Scotland really departed from UK, will we perhaps see falling Belgium into parts or Spain, will Corsica claim the Independence from France or Bavaria from Germany?

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That would make a good SF2E campaign

 

France will be with the Scottish, obviously

 

Asto Corsica, it's been a long time that we want to get rid of it :)

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France will be with the Scottish, obviously

 

Of course, Christophe Lambert already negotiate to really enter Clan Fraser and change his name for Connor MacLeod with help of his mentor Sir Connery.

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Of course, Christophe Lambert already negotiate to really enter Clan Fraser and change his name for Connor MacLeod with help of his mentor Sir Connery.

My god, we are lost !

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FREEDOM!!! ))

 

Independence for everyone! :iagree: We need an EU no bigger than Angela Merkels arse :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:

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Well if the Rep of Ireland is anything to go by prepare for an air force consisting of Helicopters and Cessnas

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If I am not mistaken, Labour is the major political party in Scotland. So, if it becomes independent, we'll get an new liberal haven with low military fund, nanny state and immigration suicide. 

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Well if the Rep of Ireland is anything to go by prepare for an air force consisting of Helicopters and Cessnas

 

Don't you mean former republic, MB? Ireland is at this stage no more than a subservient province of the EU empire (politically, at least).

The Scottish people need to ensure that if independence is voted for, to make sure they don't allow themselves to fall into the same trap as we did with the EU.

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some observations...

-England has said Scotland doesn't get  to use the pound if they break away

-the EU has said that Scotland would have to reapply for membership independently

-ndicki was working on something about the breakup of the UK around 5 years back

-might not just be Cessna's and helos.  How much would they keep, esp since assets such as Faslane can't just pick up and move. there would be give and take as the RN would likely seek to maintain the same bases at lease or negotiation.

-very good queston on other parts of Europe. part of Russia's justification for assisting South Ossettia was the recognition of indepence in Kosovo.  slippery slopes and unintended consequences may be teh order if they vote independence

 

and finally, LA, DC, NYC wont break away.  they need the rest of the country to fund their hijinks!

Edited by daddyairplanes

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Can I now start with the Braveheart jokes? :lol:

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20 years from now they will probably regret it as they become the poor stepchild of their rich neighbour. 

 

 

Scotland has 8.4% of the Uk's population and generates 9.4% of tax revenues, we have approximately 90% of the UK oild reserves, 65% of the gas reserves, 60% of the fishing grounds all of which currently heads in to a UK wide pot to support a population of around 60m, after independance these figures will not change however will then have to support a population of around 5m... so same income now supporting 1/12th the population... I fail to see the problem here.

 

As for defence, Scotland would as other have mentioned inherit a portion of current UK assets, so rather than a handful of Helo's and Pilatus trainers more like a squadron or so of Typhoons, if we can actually justify a requirement for them. Scotland as an independant nation is on the same level as places like Norway, Finland, Denmark and Belgium.... all of which have signifficantly higher military capabilities than Ireland, Ireland simply dosn't see the need for anything more than they have.

 

Craig

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Some 25 years ago, we often could read of the "7th economy of the world" :

Scotland or California, to name a few, if independant would have become the 7th economical power of the world

 

In 1/4 cycles, some things changed but the oil and fishing resources of Scotland would make it comparable to some scandinavian countries at first glance

Edited by jeanba
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Scotland has 8.4% of the Uk's population and generates 9.4% of tax revenues, we have approximately 90% of the UK oild reserves, 65% of the gas reserves, 60% of the fishing grounds all of which currently heads in to a UK wide pot to support a population of around 60m, after independance these figures will not change however will then have to support a population of around 5m... so same income now supporting 1/12th the population... I fail to see the problem here.

 

As for defence, Scotland would as other have mentioned inherit a portion of current UK assets, so rather than a handful of Helo's and Pilatus trainers more like a squadron or so of Typhoons, if we can actually justify a requirement for them. Scotland as an independant nation is on the same level as places like Norway, Finland, Denmark and Belgium.... all of which have signifficantly higher military capabilities than Ireland, Ireland simply dosn't see the need for anything more than they have.

 

Craig

 

 

A small poorly diversified economy dependent on temporary extractive activities without its own monetary policy is going to have a hard time. 

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A small poorly diversified economy dependent on temporary extractive activities without its own monetary policy is going to have a hard time. 

 

The oil and Gas is a bonus...and we're lucky to have it but we could still stand on our own without it albeit not as comfortably. Lets see the rest of the scottish economy electronics, agriculture/fisheries, financial services, construction, renewable energy, textiles, defence, food/drink, tourism, aviation services... you said something about being poorly diversified?

 

As for monetary policy I'd love to know where thats headed myself however continuing to use the £ without a curency union wouldn't really be all that different to the situation were in right now. Thats also precicely what South Africa, Australia, New Zealand , India (the list goes on....) did until the creation of their own currencies.

 

How many countries that have gained their independance from another state have ever asked to return?

 

Noone thinks its going to be a walk i the park, its going to be tough - probably for a generation or more but in the end it will be worth it. As it sits now Scots don't really have a vote, were so outnumbered by the rest of the UK that regardless which way Scotland as a whole votes on any given issue it only goes Scotlands way when the English electorate happens to agree - quite often they do not. In general elections if the Scottish vote was removed in every single election since WWII the outcome would have been exactly the same.

 

Recent policy examples:

Bedroom tax : 91% Scottish MP's against - it happened

Welface cuts:  81% Scottish MP's against - it happened

Austerity cuts: 76 % Scottish MP's against - it happened

Vat increase : 81% Scottish MP's against - it happened

Postal service privitisation: 79% Scottish MP's against - it happened

 

 

 

Craig

 

edit... Out of intersst you might want to check the GDP of Scotland and England as they are right now if taken as independant nations, the figures might suprise some...

Edited by fallenphoenix1986

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20 years from now they will probably regret it as they become the poor stepchild of their rich neighbour. 

 

Perhaps it will be completly different. Englands industry is only a shadow of her former power. For me as foreigner it seems to be that England is concentrating only or mostly on the financial sector in London while the rest of the country is falling into the insignificance. Maybe my point of view is wrong, but i see a tremendous deindustrialisation of England. And so Scotland could be really stand better without the rest of UK.

 

And as long the separation of Scotland and England, Wales and NIreland is going on a peacefull and friendly way, i would say nothing against it. The blueprint is the separation of the CSR into the Czech and the Slovak Republic. And hopefully not such a disaster like in Yugoslavia or the Ukraine.

Edited by Gepard
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I don't have skin in the game.  If Scotland does choose independence then I hope it works well for them.  But it's a very risky move. 

 

Even without Scotland the UK is the 6th largest economy in the world.  The reason that finance has eclipsed the rest of the country is because it brings in more money - it is a positive feedback loop.

 

Scotland's tax base will be substantially dependent on oil revenue which will fall dramatically over the next two decades so its current revenue advantage will disappear.  Combine that with the spending and revenue measures that failed in the UK as a whole but would have passed in Scotland and you have a recipe for higher tax and/or large budget deficits.  If you run those deficits then you run into the issues surrounding sharing a currency without a lender of last resort and with no bearing on monetary policy.  If you raise taxes then you put even greater pressure on businesses and individuals to move elsewhere.

 

Even if there is no budgetary crisis eventually there will be some sort of financial crisis and policymakers in Scotland won't have the tools to deal with it.  They'll then either have to take on their own currency or join the Eurozone (or find some way to work with the Bank of England).

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The oil and Gas is a bonus...and we're lucky to have it but we could still stand on our own without it albeit not as comfortably. Lets see the rest of the scottish economy electronics, agriculture/fisheries, financial services, construction, renewable energy, textiles, defence, food/drink, tourism, aviation services... you said something about being poorly diversified?

 

 

 

 

Who says Scotland will be keeping any of that

 

The trouble with Scotland is that its full of Scots   :beach:

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